Do factories not need 3.5 million people?

The article analyzes the outlook for labor shortages in the Russian manufacturing industry through 2034. Despite industry complaints about staff shortages, the author questions the necessity of hiring an additional 3.5 million people. Drawing on Rosstat data and Ministry of Economic Development forecasts, the piece explores the relationship between production growth and labor productivity. Over the past seven years, Russian enterprises have demonstrated an ability to increase output faster than they expand their workforce. The article examines whether automation, the adoption of robotics, and current demographic trends will allow the industry to grow without massive headcount expansion. The author concludes that the key factor will be the rate of productivity growth, which could offset the need for a massive influx of new employees, shifting the focus toward technological efficiency rather than extensive development.