Why a team lead can't predict sprint velocity and how I calculated it

The author analyzes the problem of unpredictable sprint planning in software development. Team leads often rely on intuition or past performance without accounting for vacations, onboarding, or technical debt, leading to crunch time and skewed statistics. Managing a cross-functional team of ten, the author proposes a mathematical approach to planning instead of subjective estimates. The article details a custom performance calculation formula that accounts for actual team resources, while discussing the method's limitations and real-world accuracy. This approach allows for more realistic capacity planning, helping to avoid burnout and ensure a sustainable pace. The article is a valuable resource for team leads and project managers looking to optimize planning processes and improve the predictability of development outcomes.