AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.

A new working paper from CESifo researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu challenges recent concerns that artificial intelligence is displacing entry-level job seekers. While a previous Stanford study suggested that AI-impacted occupations were seeing a decline in hiring for new graduates, the CESifo report finds no evidence of significant, widespread displacement. The researchers focused on recent college graduates, theorizing that if AI were to reduce labor demand, it would likely manifest first in entry-level roles involving standardized tasks. Despite a documented increase in corporate AI spending and the integration of tools like ChatGPT Enterprise, the data indicates that firms are not yet reducing hiring for these positions. The study suggests that the anticipated negative impact of AI on the early-career job market has not materialized, offering a more optimistic outlook for recent graduates navigating an increasingly automated professional landscape.